|
|
A Ukrainian serviceman rides atop a military vehicle past Independence square in central Kyiv © Daniel LEAL / AFP via Getty Images
Rana, as you know, it's my turn to stand in for Ed this week. I think the tone of Swamp Notes is meant to be light-hearted and chatty. Forgive me, but I cannot manage that today.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is one of the most tragic and dangerous things I’ve witnessed in my life. It was heartbreaking enough on Wednesday to watch the evening news and to see young kids being packed into bomb shelters in Kyiv — and soldiers contemplating their death on the frontline. And then I woke up yesterday to the news that it had all begun. It seems to be as fierce and brutal as the worst-case scenarios outlined to me by Western security types at the Munich Security Conference last week.
I wonder how all this will be seen in the US? At the MSC, Tony Blinken, the US secretary of state, made great play of the bipartisan support for Ukraine in America. There was indeed a large bipartisan congressional delegation present.
But then up popped Donald Trump, in a Fox Sports Radio interview, to express his admiration for the “genius” of Vladimir Putin and his “very savvy” moves over Ukraine. As so often with Trump, I was simultaneously astonished and completely unsurprised. Unsurprised because, of course, I know this is how he thinks. But astonished — because his brazen admiration for violence and dictatorship still has the capacity to astound.
Will the Republican party follow Trump — or will it split over Ukraine? Senators like Lindsey Graham and Marco Rubio, who have cosied up to Trump, have also always been Russia hawks. Faced with this horrifying Russian invasion, can they really take the Trump line — and chuckle along with him, about Putin’s audacity?
In pre-Trump days, the default GOP reaction would have been to demand support for Ukraine and to attack Biden for “weakness” and for “losing” Ukraine. That instinct came to the fore with the House Republicans’ tweet accusing Biden of “weakness on the world stage”.
On the other hand, Trump is still the party’s dominant figure and is pushing the idea that Putin is a genius. And over on Fox News, Tucker Carlson is defending Putin and suggesting that the American left is the real enemy. He told his viewers to ask themselves: “Has Putin ever called me a racist? Has he ever threatened to get me fired for disagreeing with him?”
My guess — or perhaps just fear — is that Trump and Carlson are closer to mainstream Republican opinion than the remaining hawks in Congress. There was a poll just recently that showed that 62 per cent of Republicans believe that Putin is a stronger leader than Biden. And while that might not be exactly the same as saying that he’s a preferable leader to Biden, it’s pretty close. As Carlson’s remarks suggest, some rightwing Americans might also see Putin as some kind of ally in the culture wars — a macho guy, who has no time for “gender ideology” and who is unlikely to believe that Black Lives Matter (or any lives, in fact).
The fact that Republicans have such contradictory impulses and positions on Putin may complicate their efforts to use the war for partisan advantage. But, I doubt it will stop them. After all, Trump has never been a stickler for logical consistency. I think he will find it perfectly possible to both express admiration for Putin and to attack Biden for losing Ukraine. In fact, in Trump’s mind, this may not even be inconsistent. “Strength” is the ultimate value. So Putin is to be admired for showing strength and Biden is to be derided for looking weak.
Certainly, members of the Biden administration whom I know, are worried that Ukraine will now be chalked up as a second big foreign policy failure, after Afghanistan. That is not what they need in an election year.
This may seem like an unworthy concern, when so many people are being killed in Ukraine. But it does matter. When Biden came into office, he made the defence of democracy at home and abroad the central theme of his presidency. Now, a big European democracy is on the point of being snuffed out by Russia. The “who lost Ukraine” backlash will weaken the Biden administration and its efforts to fight back against anti-democratic forces in America.
But I’m on the other side of the Atlantic. So tell me, Rana, am I misreading US politics?